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Vimenor vs Textil Escudo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Vimenor
Vimenor
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Textil Escudo
Textil Escudo
2/2/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 23Estadio La Vidriera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Vimenor59%
×Draw23%
Textil Escudo19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vimenor
1.84
Textil Escudo
0.92

Vimenor creates 100% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 56 away

creates per match

Vimenor
1.78
Textil Escudo
0.88

allows per match

Vimenor
0.95
Textil Escudo
1.91

finishing

Vimenor+0.00on par
Textil Escudo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vimenor ↓

Textil Escudo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Vimenor or draw
81%
Vimenor or Textil Escudo
77%
Draw or Textil Escudo
41%

Winning margin

Vimenor wins by 2+
34%
Textil Escudo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Vimenor 1+ goals
84%
Vimenor 2+ goals
55%
Vimenor 3+ goals
28%
Textil Escudo 1+ goals
60%
Textil Escudo 2+ goals
23%
Textil Escudo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Vimenor (draw refunded)
76%
Textil Escudo (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vimenor at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.95 · 107 matches

Textil Escudo away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.91 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vimenor attack 1.78 + Textil Escudo defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.84

Textil Escudo attack 0.88 + Vimenor defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Vimenor scores more
59%
level
23%
Textil Escudo scores more
19%

Vimenor at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Vimenor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Vimenor 1–2 Textil Escudo

Textil Escudo beat Vimenor 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on February 2, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio La Vidriera in Vioño de Piélagos.