Vimenor vs Siete Villas: Preview & Prediction

Vimenor

PST

00:00

Siete Villas

4/19/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 34Estadio La Vidriera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Vimenor50%

×Draw26%

Siete Villas24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VimenorExpected goals in this matchSiete Villas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.97

Vimenor

1.52

Siete Villas

0.97

Vimenor creates 57% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 91 away

1.78

creates per match

0.99

0.95

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Vimenor

1.78

Siete Villas

0.99

allows per match

Vimenor

0.95

Siete Villas

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vimenor+0.00on par

Siete Villas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vimenor ↓

Siete Villas →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Vimenor or draw

76%

Vimenor or Siete Villas

74%

Draw or Siete Villas

50%

Winning margin

Vimenor wins by 2+

25%

Siete Villas wins by 2+

Team goals

Vimenor 1+ goals

78%

Vimenor 2+ goals

45%

Vimenor 3+ goals

20%

Siete Villas 1+ goals

62%

Siete Villas 2+ goals

25%

Siete Villas 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Vimenor (draw refunded)

67%

Siete Villas (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vimenor at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.95 · 107 matches

Siete Villas away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.27 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vimenor attack 1.78 + Siete Villas defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.52

Siete Villas attack 0.99 + Vimenor defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Vimenor scores more

50%

level

26%

Siete Villas scores more

24%

Vimenor at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Vimenor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vimenor vs Siete Villas — Match Preview

Vimenor face Siete Villas on April 19, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Vimenor host Siete Villas at Estadio La Vidriera.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Vimenor vs Siete Villas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Vimenor vs Siete Villas — Match Preview