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Vimenor vs Revilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Vimenor
Vimenor
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Revilla
Revilla
2/19/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 21Estadio La Vidriera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Vimenor55%
×Draw24%
Revilla21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vimenor
1.75
Revilla
0.99

Vimenor creates 77% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 81 away

creates per match

Vimenor
1.78
Revilla
1.04

allows per match

Vimenor
0.95
Revilla
1.72

finishing

Vimenor+0.00on par
Revilla+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vimenor ↓

Revilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Vimenor or draw
79%
Vimenor or Revilla
76%
Draw or Revilla
45%

Winning margin

Vimenor wins by 2+
31%
Revilla wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Vimenor 1+ goals
83%
Vimenor 2+ goals
52%
Vimenor 3+ goals
25%
Revilla 1+ goals
63%
Revilla 2+ goals
26%
Revilla 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Vimenor (draw refunded)
72%
Revilla (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vimenor at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.95 · 107 matches

Revilla away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.72 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vimenor attack 1.78 + Revilla defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.75

Revilla attack 1.04 + Vimenor defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Vimenor scores more
55%
level
24%
Revilla scores more
21%

Vimenor at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Vimenor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Vimenor 3–1 Revilla

Vimenor beat Revilla 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on February 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio La Vidriera in Vioño de Piélagos.