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Vimenor vs Castro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Vimenor
Vimenor
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Castro
Castro
11/20/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 10Estadio La Vidriera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Vimenor52%
×Draw25%
Castro23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vimenor
1.62
Castro
0.98

Vimenor creates 65% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 96 away

creates per match

Vimenor
1.78
Castro
1.02

allows per match

Vimenor
0.95
Castro
1.46

finishing

Vimenor+0.00on par
Castro+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vimenor ↓

Castro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Vimenor or draw
77%
Vimenor or Castro
75%
Draw or Castro
48%

Winning margin

Vimenor wins by 2+
28%
Castro wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Vimenor 1+ goals
80%
Vimenor 2+ goals
48%
Vimenor 3+ goals
22%
Castro 1+ goals
62%
Castro 2+ goals
26%
Castro 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Vimenor (draw refunded)
70%
Castro (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vimenor at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.95 · 107 matches

Castro away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.46 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vimenor attack 1.78 + Castro defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.62

Castro attack 1.02 + Vimenor defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Vimenor scores more
52%
level
25%
Castro scores more
23%

Vimenor at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Vimenor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Vimenor 2–2 Castro

Vimenor and Castro drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on November 20, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio La Vidriera in Vioño de Piélagos.