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Vimenor vs Atlético Albericia — Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs 2022

Vimenor
Vimenor
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Albericia
Atlético Albericia
5/6/2023Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offsTercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs · Promotion Play-offs - 1st RoundEstadio La Vidriera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Vimenor43%
×Draw33%
Atlético Albericia25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vimenor
1.04
Atlético Albericia
0.71

Vimenor creates 46% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Vimenor
0.75
Atlético Albericia
0.67

allows per match

Vimenor
0.75
Atlético Albericia
1.33

finishing

Vimenor+0.00on par
Atlético Albericia+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vimenor ↓

Atlético Albericia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
52%48%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Vimenor or draw
75%
Vimenor or Atlético Albericia
67%
Draw or Atlético Albericia
57%

Winning margin

Vimenor wins by 2+
17%
Atlético Albericia wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Vimenor 1+ goals
65%
Vimenor 2+ goals
28%
Vimenor 3+ goals
9%
Atlético Albericia 1+ goals
51%
Atlético Albericia 2+ goals
16%
Atlético Albericia 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Vimenor (draw refunded)
63%
Atlético Albericia (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vimenor at home — creates 0.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Atlético Albericia away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vimenor attack 0.75 + Atlético Albericia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.04

Atlético Albericia attack 0.67 + Vimenor defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Vimenor scores more
43%
level
33%
Atlético Albericia scores more
25%

Vimenor at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Vimenor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs: Vimenor 1–0 Atlético Albericia

Vimenor beat Atlético Albericia 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs on May 6, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio La Vidriera in Vioño de Piélagos.