Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Villarrubia vs Tarancón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Villarrubia
Villarrubia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Tarancón
Tarancón
11/18/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 11Campo Nuevo Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Villarrubia41%
×Draw28%
Tarancón31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villarrubia
1.28
Tarancón
1.08

Villarrubia creates 19% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 110 away

creates per match

Villarrubia
1.40
Tarancón
1.28

allows per match

Villarrubia
0.88
Tarancón
1.17

finishing

Villarrubia+0.00on par
Tarancón+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarrubia ↓

Tarancón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Villarrubia or draw
69%
Villarrubia or Tarancón
72%
Draw or Tarancón
59%

Winning margin

Villarrubia wins by 2+
18%
Tarancón wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Villarrubia 1+ goals
72%
Villarrubia 2+ goals
37%
Villarrubia 3+ goals
14%
Tarancón 1+ goals
66%
Tarancón 2+ goals
29%
Tarancón 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Villarrubia (draw refunded)
57%
Tarancón (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarrubia at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.88 · 83 matches

Tarancón away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.17 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarrubia attack 1.40 + Tarancón defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.28

Tarancón attack 1.28 + Villarrubia defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Villarrubia scores more
41%
level
28%
Tarancón scores more
31%

Villarrubia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Villarrubia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Villarrubia 1–1 Tarancón

Villarrubia and Tarancón drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Nuevo Municipal in Villarrubia de los Ojos.