Villarreal 5–0 Levante: Result & Stats | La Liga

Villarreal

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Levante

Gerard Moreno 79', 37'

Manu Trigueros 74'

Pau Torres 13'

B. Dia 8'

1/3/2022

La Liga · Round 19Estadio de la Cerámica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Villarreal51%

×Draw23%

Levante26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VillarrealExpected goals in this matchLevante

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.21

Villarreal

1.80

Levante

1.21

Villarreal creates 49% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 19 away

1.90

creates per match

1.18

1.24

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Villarreal

1.90

Levante

1.18

allows per match

Villarreal

1.24

Levante

1.71

+0.39scores more than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Villarreal+0.39scores more

Levante-0.07on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarreal ↓

Levante →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Villarreal or draw

74%

Villarreal or Levante

77%

Draw or Levante

49%

Winning margin

Villarreal wins by 2+

28%

Levante wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Villarreal 1+ goals

83%

Villarreal 2+ goals

54%

Villarreal 3+ goals

27%

Levante 1+ goals

70%

Levante 2+ goals

34%

Levante 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Villarreal (draw refunded)

67%

Levante (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarreal at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.24 · 31 matches

Levante away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.71 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarreal attack 1.90 + Levante defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.80

Levante attack 1.18 + Villarreal defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Villarreal scores more

51%

level

23%

Levante scores more

26%

Villarreal at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Villarreal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Gerard Moreno

Villarreal · F

9.3

Match Events

4'

8'

10'

13'

37'

Gerard Moreno↳ Manu Trigueros

47'

Carlos Clerc

50'

Vicente Iborra

59'

Enric Franquesa← Clerc

59'

Pablo Martínez← Melero

59'

M. Malsa← N. Radoja

73'

Alberto Moreno← Moi Gómez

73'

Yeremi Pino← S. Chukwueze

74'

Manu Trigueros↳ B. Dia

76'

Manu Trigueros

78'

Dani Gómez← Jorge de Frutos

78'

Rober← E. Bardhi

79'

Gerard Moreno↳ Yeremi Pino

80'

Dani Raba← Gerard Moreno

81'

N. Jackson← B. Dia

84'

Carlo Adriano← Manu Trigueros

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VillarrealLevante

Overview

58%Possession42%

17Total Shots7

6Corners5

12Fouls9

Shots

17Total Shots7

7On Target3

5Off Target1

5Blocked3

14Inside Box4

3Outside Box3

Passing

58%Possession42%

487Total Passes356

422Accurate Passes287

87%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls9

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides4