Villarreal 2–2 Espanyol: Result & Stats | La Liga

Villarreal

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Espanyol

Santi Cazorla 65' (pen)

Vicente Iborra 37'

R. Rosales 81'

D. Bonera 75' (OG)

2/3/2019

La Liga · Round 22Estadio de la Cerámica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Villarreal50%

×Draw24%

Espanyol26%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VillarrealExpected goals in this matchEspanyol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.19

Villarreal

1.72

Espanyol

1.19

Villarreal creates 45% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 24 away

1.88

creates per match

1.05

1.33

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Villarreal

1.88

Espanyol

1.05

allows per match

Villarreal

1.33

Espanyol

1.56

+0.42scores more than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Villarreal+0.42scores more

Espanyol+0.08on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarreal ↓

Espanyol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Villarreal or draw

74%

Villarreal or Espanyol

76%

Draw or Espanyol

50%

Winning margin

Villarreal wins by 2+

27%

Espanyol wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Villarreal 1+ goals

82%

Villarreal 2+ goals

51%

Villarreal 3+ goals

25%

Espanyol 1+ goals

70%

Espanyol 2+ goals

33%

Espanyol 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Villarreal (draw refunded)

65%

Espanyol (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarreal at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.33 · 33 matches

Espanyol away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.56 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarreal attack 1.88 + Espanyol defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.72

Espanyol attack 1.05 + Villarreal defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Villarreal scores more

50%

level

24%

Espanyol scores more

26%

Villarreal at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Villarreal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

Santi Cazorla

Villarreal · M

8.0

Match Events

4'

37'

39'

40'

46'

Óscar Melendo← Víctor Sánchez

53'

Ramiro Funes Mori

60'

Didac Vila

64'

Mario Hermoso

65'

Santi CazorlaPenalty

70'

F. Ferreyra← Sergio García

74'

C. Bacca← K. Toko Ekambi

75'

D. BoneraOwn goal

78'

Wu Lei← Dídac Vilá

81'

R. Rosales↳ Óscar Melendo

82'

Roberto Rosales

83'

S. Chukwueze← Pablo Fornals

86'

Vicente Iborra

88'

Mario Gaspar← Miguelón Llambrich

90'

Sergi Darder

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VillarrealEspanyol

Overview

41%Possession59%

14Total Shots17

3Corners2

22Fouls16

Shots

14Total Shots17

5On Target2

7Off Target6

2Blocked9

13Inside Box7

1Outside Box10

Passing

41%Possession59%

300Total Passes430

222Accurate Passes339

74%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

22Fouls16

4Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards0

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Villarreal vs Espanyol

Villarreal and Espanyol drew 2-2 in La Liga on February 3, 2019.

Goals: Vicente Iborra (37'), Santi Cazorla (65' pen), D. Bonera (75' o.g.), R. Rosales (81').

Espanyol controlled possession (59%) and registered 17 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio de la Cerámica in Villarreal.

Villarreal vs Espanyol — La Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Villarreal vs Espanyol