Villarreal 4–1 Elche: Result & Stats | La Liga

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VillarrealExpected goals in this matchElche

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.99

Villarreal

1.81

Elche

0.99

Villarreal creates 83% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 27 away

1.86

creates per match

0.71

1.27

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Villarreal

1.86

Elche

0.71

allows per match

Villarreal

1.27

Elche

1.75

+0.32scores more than expected

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

Villarreal+0.32scores more

Elche+0.14scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarreal ↓

Elche →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Villarreal or draw

80%

Villarreal or Elche

77%

Draw or Elche

43%

Winning margin

Villarreal wins by 2+

32%

Elche wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Villarreal 1+ goals

84%

Villarreal 2+ goals

54%

Villarreal 3+ goals

27%

Elche 1+ goals

63%

Elche 2+ goals

26%

Elche 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Villarreal (draw refunded)

73%

Elche (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarreal at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.27 · 39 matches

Elche away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.75 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarreal attack 1.86 + Elche defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.81

Elche attack 0.71 + Villarreal defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Villarreal scores more

57%

level

23%

Elche scores more

20%

Villarreal at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Villarreal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Yeremi Pino

Villarreal · F

7.9

Match Events

5'

Yeremi Pino↳ Paco Alcácer

19'

J. Mojica↳ Josan Ferrández

27'

Alfonso Pedraza

39'

Manu Trigueros↳ Yeremi Pino

40'

Fidel

46'

P. Estupiñán← Pedraza

53'

Moi Gómez← Yeremi Pino

60'

A. Groeneveld

64'

Raúl Guti← I. Marcone

64'

Omar Mascarell← Gumbau

64'

J. Pastore← Fidel

69'

D. Benedetto← Lucas Pérez

73'

Diego Gonzalez

75'

F. Coquelin← Manu Trigueros

75'

B. Dia← Paco Alcácer

82'

Pere Milla← Barragán

86'

Alberto Moreno← A. Groeneveld

90+4'

Alberto Moreno↳ B. Dia

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VillarrealElche

Overview

60%Possession40%

14Total Shots9

8Corners7

16Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots9

9On Target3

3Off Target3

2Blocked3

10Inside Box7

4Outside Box2

Passing

60%Possession40%

536Total Passes340

456Accurate Passes263

85%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

16Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1