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Villarreal II vs Real Madrid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Villarreal II
Villarreal II
Preview
16:00
Real Madrid II
Real Madrid II
1/10/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 19Estadio de la Ceramica
52%
Villarreal II
model favours
52%26%22%

Both teams scored in 4 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Villarreal II52%
×Draw26%
Real Madrid II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villarreal II
1.54
Real Madrid II
0.91

Villarreal II creates 69% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 57 away

creates per match

Villarreal II
1.79
Real Madrid II
0.98

allows per match

Villarreal II
0.84
Real Madrid II
1.28

finishing

Villarreal II+0.00on par
Real Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarreal II ↓

Real Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Villarreal II or draw
78%
Villarreal II or Real Madrid II
74%
Draw or Real Madrid II
48%

Winning margin

Villarreal II wins by 2+
27%
Real Madrid II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Villarreal II 1+ goals
79%
Villarreal II 2+ goals
45%
Villarreal II 3+ goals
20%
Real Madrid II 1+ goals
60%
Real Madrid II 2+ goals
23%
Real Madrid II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Villarreal II (draw refunded)
70%
Real Madrid II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarreal II at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.84 · 57 matches

Real Madrid II away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.28 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarreal II attack 1.79 + Real Madrid II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.54

Real Madrid II attack 0.98 + Villarreal II defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Villarreal II scores more
52%
level
26%
Real Madrid II scores more
22%

Villarreal II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Villarreal II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 4 meetings averaged 3.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
II
LWDWD
II
LWDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Villarreal II host Real Madrid II

January 10, 2027: Villarreal II take on Real Madrid II in Primera División RFEF - Group 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Villarreal II host Real Madrid II at Estadio de la Ceramica.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.