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Villarreal II vs Hércules — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Villarreal II
Villarreal II
Preview
16:00
Hércules
Hércules
2/28/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 26Estadio de la Ceramica
55%
Villarreal II
model favours
55%24%20%

Villarreal II have won 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Villarreal II55%
×Draw24%
Hércules20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villarreal II
1.66
Hércules
0.90

Villarreal II creates 84% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 38 away

creates per match

Villarreal II
1.79
Hércules
0.95

allows per match

Villarreal II
0.84
Hércules
1.53

finishing

Villarreal II+0.00on par
Hércules+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarreal II ↓

Hércules →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Villarreal II or draw
80%
Villarreal II or Hércules
76%
Draw or Hércules
45%

Winning margin

Villarreal II wins by 2+
30%
Hércules wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Villarreal II 1+ goals
81%
Villarreal II 2+ goals
49%
Villarreal II 3+ goals
23%
Hércules 1+ goals
59%
Hércules 2+ goals
23%
Hércules 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Villarreal II (draw refunded)
73%
Hércules (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarreal II at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.84 · 57 matches

Hércules away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.53 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarreal II attack 1.79 + Hércules defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.66

Hércules attack 0.95 + Villarreal II defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Villarreal II scores more
55%
level
24%
Hércules scores more
20%

Villarreal II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Villarreal II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Hércules raise their game against the top half — 37% wins vs the upper half, only 34% vs the lower

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
II
LWDWD
Hércules
DWWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Villarreal II vs Hércules — Match Preview

Villarreal II face Hércules on February 28, 2027 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Villarreal II host Hércules at Estadio de la Ceramica.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.