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Villafranca vs Don Álvaro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Villafranca
Villafranca
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Don Álvaro
Don Álvaro
10/10/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 5Estadio Municipal de Villafranca de los Barros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Villafranca56%
×Draw24%
Don Álvaro19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villafranca
1.65
Don Álvaro
0.85

Villafranca creates 94% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 47 away

creates per match

Villafranca
1.42
Don Álvaro
0.72

allows per match

Villafranca
0.98
Don Álvaro
1.89

finishing

Villafranca+0.00on par
Don Álvaro+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villafranca ↓

Don Álvaro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Villafranca or draw
81%
Villafranca or Don Álvaro
76%
Draw or Don Álvaro
44%

Winning margin

Villafranca wins by 2+
31%
Don Álvaro wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Villafranca 1+ goals
81%
Villafranca 2+ goals
49%
Villafranca 3+ goals
23%
Don Álvaro 1+ goals
57%
Don Álvaro 2+ goals
21%
Don Álvaro 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Villafranca (draw refunded)
74%
Don Álvaro (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villafranca at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.98 · 81 matches

Don Álvaro away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.89 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villafranca attack 1.42 + Don Álvaro defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.65

Don Álvaro attack 0.72 + Villafranca defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Villafranca scores more
56%
level
24%
Don Álvaro scores more
19%

Villafranca at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Villafranca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Villafranca vs Don Álvaro

Villafranca beat Don Álvaro 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on October 10, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Villafranca de los Barros in Villafranca de los Barros.