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Villacañas vs Villarrubia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Villacañas
Villacañas
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Villarrubia
Villarrubia
1/7/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 15Campo De Fútbol Las Pirámides

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Villacañas43%
×Draw30%
Villarrubia28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villacañas
1.19
Villarrubia
0.90

Villacañas creates 32% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 82 away

creates per match

Villacañas
1.24
Villarrubia
0.95

allows per match

Villacañas
0.84
Villarrubia
1.15

finishing

Villacañas+0.00on par
Villarrubia+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villacañas ↓

Villarrubia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Villacañas or draw
72%
Villacañas or Villarrubia
70%
Draw or Villarrubia
57%

Winning margin

Villacañas wins by 2+
18%
Villarrubia wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Villacañas 1+ goals
70%
Villacañas 2+ goals
33%
Villacañas 3+ goals
12%
Villarrubia 1+ goals
59%
Villarrubia 2+ goals
23%
Villarrubia 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Villacañas (draw refunded)
61%
Villarrubia (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villacañas at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.84 · 110 matches

Villarrubia away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.15 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villacañas attack 1.24 + Villarrubia defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.19

Villarrubia attack 0.95 + Villacañas defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Villacañas scores more
43%
level
30%
Villarrubia scores more
28%

Villacañas at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Villacañas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Villacañas vs Villarrubia

Villacañas beat Villarrubia 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on January 7, 2024.

The match was played at Campo De Fútbol Las Pirámides in Villacañas.