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Villacañas vs Tarancón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Villacañas
Villacañas
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tarancón
Tarancón
10/21/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 7Campo De Fútbol Las Pirámides

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Villacañas39%
×Draw28%
Tarancón32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villacañas
1.21
Tarancón
1.06

Villacañas creates 14% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 110 away

creates per match

Villacañas
1.24
Tarancón
1.28

allows per match

Villacañas
0.84
Tarancón
1.17

finishing

Villacañas+0.00on par
Tarancón+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villacañas ↓

Tarancón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Villacañas or draw
68%
Villacañas or Tarancón
72%
Draw or Tarancón
61%

Winning margin

Villacañas wins by 2+
17%
Tarancón wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Villacañas 1+ goals
70%
Villacañas 2+ goals
34%
Villacañas 3+ goals
12%
Tarancón 1+ goals
65%
Tarancón 2+ goals
29%
Tarancón 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Villacañas (draw refunded)
55%
Tarancón (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villacañas at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.84 · 110 matches

Tarancón away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.17 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villacañas attack 1.24 + Tarancón defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.21

Tarancón attack 1.28 + Villacañas defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Villacañas scores more
39%
level
28%
Tarancón scores more
32%

Villacañas at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Villacañas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Villacañas vs Tarancón

Tarancón beat Villacañas 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at Campo De Fútbol Las Pirámides in Villacañas.