Villa Teresa 3–1 Cerrito: Result & Stats

Villa Teresa

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Cerrito

F. Puente 90+1'

A. Martínez 38'

M. Montiel 26'

F. Pizzichillo 59'

6/3/2018

Segunda División · Round 13Parque José Nasazzi (Montevideo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Villa Teresa39%

×Draw27%

Cerrito34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Villa TeresaExpected goals in this matchCerrito

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.16

Villa Teresa

1.27

Cerrito

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 98 away

1.07

creates per match

1.10

1.21

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Villa Teresa

1.07

Cerrito

1.10

allows per match

Villa Teresa

1.21

Cerrito

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villa Teresa+0.00on par

Cerrito+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Teresa ↓

Cerrito →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Villa Teresa or draw

66%

Villa Teresa or Cerrito

73%

Draw or Cerrito

61%

Winning margin

Villa Teresa wins by 2+

17%

Cerrito wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Villa Teresa 1+ goals

72%

Villa Teresa 2+ goals

36%

Villa Teresa 3+ goals

14%

Cerrito 1+ goals

69%

Cerrito 2+ goals

32%

Cerrito 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Villa Teresa (draw refunded)

54%

Cerrito (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa Teresa at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.21 · 56 matches

Cerrito away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.48 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa Teresa attack 1.07 + Cerrito defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.27

Cerrito attack 1.10 + Villa Teresa defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Villa Teresa scores more

39%

level

27%

Cerrito scores more

34%

Villa Teresa at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Villa Teresa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

M. Montiel

38'

A. Martínez

59'

F. Pizzichillo

67'

D. Rocha← Wanderson Silveira

68'

N. Ayala← G. Curbelo

75'

K. Lado← C. Yeladián

80'

A. Gallego← A. Martínez

88'

L. Rodríguez← J. Trinidad

89'

H. Ruiz Díaz← N. Roldán

90+1'

F. Puente

Villa

Cerrito

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: A. Fernández

68'▲N. Ayala←▼G. Curbelo

80'▲A. Gallego←▼A. Martínez

89'▲H. Ruiz Díaz←▼N. Roldán

Villa Teresa substitutes

AyalaGallegoDíazCousillasAcostaBritosTapia

Manager: I. Ordoñez

67'▲D. Rocha←▼Wanderson Silveira

75'▲K. Lado←▼C. Yeladián

88'▲L. Rodríguez←▼J. Trinidad

Cerrito substitutes

RochaLadoRodríguezAraújoDuarteTecheraUmpiérrez