Villa Teresa 1–1 Central Espanol: Result & Stats

Villa Teresa

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Central Espanol

N. Ayala 78'

J. Soto 39'

7/13/2019

Segunda División · Round 10Parque Abraham Paladino (Montevideo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Villa Teresa36%

×Draw28%

Central Espanol36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Villa TeresaExpected goals in this matchCentral Espanol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.17

Villa Teresa

1.18

Central Espanol

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 87 away

1.07

creates per match

1.13

1.21

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Villa Teresa

1.07

Central Espanol

1.13

allows per match

Villa Teresa

1.21

Central Espanol

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villa Teresa+0.00on par

Central Espanol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Teresa ↓

Central Espanol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Villa Teresa or draw

64%

Villa Teresa or Central Espanol

72%

Draw or Central Espanol

64%

Winning margin

Villa Teresa wins by 2+

15%

Central Espanol wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Villa Teresa 1+ goals

69%

Villa Teresa 2+ goals

33%

Villa Teresa 3+ goals

12%

Central Espanol 1+ goals

69%

Central Espanol 2+ goals

33%

Central Espanol 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Villa Teresa (draw refunded)

50%

Central Espanol (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa Teresa at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.21 · 56 matches

Central Espanol away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.28 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa Teresa attack 1.07 + Central Espanol defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.18

Central Espanol attack 1.13 + Villa Teresa defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Villa Teresa scores more

36%

level

28%

Central Espanol scores more

36%

Villa Teresa at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Villa Teresa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

J. Soto

62'

N. Ayala← M. Masiero

62'

L. Silva← D. Blanco

70'

L. Reymundez← F. Sellanes

74'

78'

86'

86'

Villa

Central

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: G. Biscayzacú

62'▲N. Ayala←▼M. Masiero

70'▲L. Reymundez←▼F. Sellanes

86'▲N. López←▼N. Vigneri

Villa Teresa substitutes

AyalaReymundezLópezEiraldiGottesmanRodríguezRocha

Manager: S. Paz

62'▲L. Silva←▼D. Blanco

74'▲D. Amaro←▼S. Galán

86'▲G. Gotta←▼A. Furia

Central Espanol substitutes

SilvaAmaroGottaCeballesTanqueCortizasRolero

Match Recap: Villa Teresa vs Central Espanol

Villa Teresa and Central Espanol drew 1-1 in Segunda División on July 13, 2019.

Goals: J. Soto (39'), N. Ayala (78').

The match was played at Parque Abraham Paladino (Montevideo).

Villa Teresa vs Central Espanol — Segunda División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Villa Teresa vs Central Espanol