Villa Santa Brígida 2–0 Marino: Result & Stats

Villa Santa Brígida

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Marino

2/11/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 20Campo Los Olivos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Villa Santa Brígida51%

×Draw26%

Marino23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Villa Santa BrígidaExpected goals in this matchMarino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.94

Villa Santa Brígida

1.53

Marino

0.94

Villa Santa Brígida creates 63% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 95 away

1.42

creates per match

1.03

0.84

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Villa Santa Brígida

1.42

Marino

1.03

allows per match

Villa Santa Brígida

0.84

Marino

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villa Santa Brígida+0.00on par

Marino+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Santa Brígida ↓

Marino →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Villa Santa Brígida or draw

77%

Villa Santa Brígida or Marino

74%

Draw or Marino

49%

Winning margin

Villa Santa Brígida wins by 2+

26%

Marino wins by 2+

Team goals

Villa Santa Brígida 1+ goals

78%

Villa Santa Brígida 2+ goals

45%

Villa Santa Brígida 3+ goals

20%

Marino 1+ goals

61%

Marino 2+ goals

24%

Marino 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Villa Santa Brígida (draw refunded)

69%

Marino (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Villa Santa Brígida at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.84 · 110 matches

Marino away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.64 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Villa Santa Brígida attack 1.42 + Marino defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.53

Marino attack 1.03 + Villa Santa Brígida defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Villa Santa Brígida scores more

51%

level

26%

Marino scores more

23%

Villa Santa Brígida at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Villa Santa Brígida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff