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Villa San Carlos vs Dock Sud — Primera C 2026

Villa San Carlos
Villa San Carlos
FT
0 – 1
Dock Sud
Dock Sud
9/23/2018Primera CPrimera C · Round 7Estadio Genancio Sálice (Berisso, Provincia de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Villa San Carlos43%
×Draw29%
Dock Sud28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villa San Carlos
1.25
Dock Sud
0.94

Villa San Carlos creates 33% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 75 away

creates per match

Villa San Carlos
1.38
Dock Sud
1.20

allows per match

Villa San Carlos
0.67
Dock Sud
1.12

finishing

Villa San Carlos+0.00on par
Dock Sud+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa San Carlos ↓

Dock Sud →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Villa San Carlos or draw
72%
Villa San Carlos or Dock Sud
71%
Draw or Dock Sud
57%

Winning margin

Villa San Carlos wins by 2+
19%
Dock Sud wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Villa San Carlos 1+ goals
71%
Villa San Carlos 2+ goals
36%
Villa San Carlos 3+ goals
13%
Dock Sud 1+ goals
61%
Dock Sud 2+ goals
24%
Dock Sud 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Villa San Carlos (draw refunded)
61%
Dock Sud (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa San Carlos at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.67 · 21 matches

Dock Sud away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.12 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa San Carlos attack 1.38 + Dock Sud defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.25

Dock Sud attack 1.20 + Villa San Carlos defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Villa San Carlos scores more
43%
level
29%
Dock Sud scores more
28%

Villa San Carlos at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Villa San Carlos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Villa San Carlos 0–1 Dock Sud

Dock Sud beat Villa San Carlos 1-0 in Primera C on September 23, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Genancio Sálice (Berisso, Provincia de Buenos Aires).