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Villa Mitre vs Sansinena — Copa Argentina 2018

Villa Mitre
Villa Mitre
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sansinena
Sansinena
1/23/2020Copa ArgentinaCopa Argentina · Qualifying RoundEstadio El Fortín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Villa Mitre64%
×Draw30%
Sansinena6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villa Mitre
1.23
Sansinena
0.20

Villa Mitre creates 515% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Villa Mitre
1.20
Sansinena
0.00

allows per match

Villa Mitre
0.40
Sansinena
1.25

finishing

Villa Mitre+0.00on par
Sansinena+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Under
  • Under83
  • Over17

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

87%No
  • No87
  • Yes13

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Mitre ↓

Sansinena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–024%
0–15%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–029%
1–16%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–018%
2–14%
2–20%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (29%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
76%24%1.5
42%58%2.5
17%83%3.5
6%94%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Villa Mitre or draw
94%
Villa Mitre or Sansinena
70%
Draw or Sansinena
36%

Winning margin

Villa Mitre wins by 2+
31%
Sansinena wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Villa Mitre 1+ goals
71%
Villa Mitre 2+ goals
35%
Villa Mitre 3+ goals
13%
Sansinena 1+ goals
18%
Sansinena 2+ goals
2%
Sansinena 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Villa Mitre (draw refunded)
91%
Sansinena (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
7%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa Mitre at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Sansinena away — creates 0.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa Mitre attack 1.20 + Sansinena defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Sansinena attack 0.00 + Villa Mitre defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Villa Mitre scores more
64%
level
30%
Sansinena scores more
6%

Villa Mitre at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Villa Mitre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Argentina: Villa Mitre 1–0 Sansinena

Villa Mitre beat Sansinena 1-0 in Copa Argentina on January 23, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio El Fortín in Bahía Blanca, Provincia de Buenos Aires.