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Vilafranquense vs Penafiel — Segunda Liga 2018

Vilafranquense
Vilafranquense
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Penafiel
Penafiel
1/19/2020Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 17Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Vilafranquense40%
×Draw27%
Penafiel34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilafranquense
1.34
Penafiel
1.21

Vilafranquense creates 11% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 131 away

creates per match

Vilafranquense
1.27
Penafiel
1.02

allows per match

Vilafranquense
1.40
Penafiel
1.42

finishing

Vilafranquense+0.00on par
Penafiel+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilafranquense ↓

Penafiel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Vilafranquense or draw
66%
Vilafranquense or Penafiel
73%
Draw or Penafiel
60%

Winning margin

Vilafranquense wins by 2+
18%
Penafiel wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Vilafranquense 1+ goals
74%
Vilafranquense 2+ goals
39%
Vilafranquense 3+ goals
15%
Penafiel 1+ goals
70%
Penafiel 2+ goals
34%
Penafiel 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Vilafranquense (draw refunded)
54%
Penafiel (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilafranquense at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.40 · 63 matches

Penafiel away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.42 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilafranquense attack 1.27 + Penafiel defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.34

Penafiel attack 1.02 + Vilafranquense defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vilafranquense scores more
40%
level
27%
Penafiel scores more
34%

Vilafranquense at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vilafranquense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda Liga: Vilafranquense 1–1 Penafiel

Vilafranquense and Penafiel drew 1-1 in Segunda Liga on January 19, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior in Rio Maior.