Vila Real 1–1 Tirsense: Result & Stats

Vila Real

AET

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Tirsense

9/12/2021

Taça de Portugal · 1st RoundCampo Do Calvário

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Vila Real14%

×Draw18%

Tirsense68%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vila RealExpected goals in this matchTirsense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

2.42

Vila Real

1.00

Tirsense

2.42

Tirsense creates 142% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

1.00

creates per match

2.14

2.71

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Vila Real

1.00

Tirsense

2.14

allows per match

Vila Real

2.71

Tirsense

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vila Real+0.00on par

Tirsense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vila Real ↓

Tirsense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–18%

0–210%

0–38%

0–45%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Vila Real or draw

32%

Vila Real or Tirsense

82%

Draw or Tirsense

86%

Winning margin

Vila Real wins by 2+

5%

Tirsense wins by 2+

46%

Team goals

Vila Real 1+ goals

63%

Vila Real 2+ goals

26%

Vila Real 3+ goals

8%

Tirsense 1+ goals

91%

Tirsense 2+ goals

69%

Tirsense 3+ goals

43%

Draw no bet

Vila Real (draw refunded)

17%

Tirsense (draw refunded)

83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vila Real at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

Tirsense away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vila Real attack 1.00 + Tirsense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Tirsense attack 2.14 + Vila Real defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Vila Real scores more

14%

level

18%

Tirsense scores more

68%

Tirsense at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Tirsense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff