Vila Nova vs Fortaleza EC — Serie B 2026
Serie B · Round 19
When Fortaleza EC score first, they win 80% of the time
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 5+ matches
Vila Nova40%
Fortaleza EC32%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Vila Nova creates 14% more chances
Season form · 5 home / 5 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under57
- Over43
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No51
- Yes49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Vila Nova ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Vila Nova at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.12 · 5 matches
Fortaleza EC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.43 · 5 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Vila Nova attack 1.13 + Fortaleza EC defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.28
Fortaleza EC attack 1.12 + Vila Nova defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.12
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
Vila Nova at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "Vila Nova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- 43% of Fortaleza EC’s goals come after the 75th minute
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Style Matchup
Similar stylesHead-to-head
4 previous meetings
Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Atletico Goianiense
Avai
BOA
Brasil DE Pelotas
CRB
CSA
Coritiba
Criciuma
FigueirenseFortaleza EC
Goias
Guarani Campinas
Juventude
Londrina
Oeste
Paysandu
Ponte Preta
Sampaio Correa
Sao BentoVila NovaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Vila Nova host Fortaleza EC on Wednesday, 22 July 2026 at 00:35. The match is part of the Serie B 2026/2027 season.
Vila Nova face Fortaleza EC (Serie B)
Serie B returns with Vila Nova hosting Fortaleza EC. Match starts July 22, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.