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Viktorie Přerov vs Kozlovice — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Viktorie Přerov
Viktorie Přerov
FT
5 – 0
Kozlovice
Kozlovice
10/9/20214. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 11Městský Stadion Přerov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Viktorie Přerov35%
×Draw24%
Kozlovice42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktorie Přerov
1.48
Kozlovice
1.64

Kozlovice creates 11% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 81 away

creates per match

Viktorie Přerov
1.83
Kozlovice
1.72

allows per match

Viktorie Přerov
1.56
Kozlovice
1.14

finishing

Viktorie Přerov+0.00on par
Kozlovice+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktorie Přerov ↓

Kozlovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Viktorie Přerov or draw
58%
Viktorie Přerov or Kozlovice
76%
Draw or Kozlovice
65%

Winning margin

Viktorie Přerov wins by 2+
16%
Kozlovice wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Viktorie Přerov 1+ goals
77%
Viktorie Přerov 2+ goals
43%
Viktorie Přerov 3+ goals
19%
Kozlovice 1+ goals
81%
Kozlovice 2+ goals
49%
Kozlovice 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Viktorie Přerov (draw refunded)
46%
Kozlovice (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktorie Přerov at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.56 · 52 matches

Kozlovice away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.14 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktorie Přerov attack 1.83 + Kozlovice defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.48

Kozlovice attack 1.72 + Viktorie Přerov defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Viktorie Přerov scores more
35%
level
24%
Kozlovice scores more
42%

Kozlovice at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kozlovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viktorie Přerov vs Kozlovice

Viktorie Přerov beat Kozlovice 5-0 in 4. liga - Divizie E on October 9, 2021.

The match was played at Městský Stadion Přerov in Přerov.