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Viktorie Přerov vs HFK Olomouc — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Viktorie Přerov
Viktorie Přerov
PST
14:00
HFK Olomouc
HFK Olomouc
4/19/20204. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Round 19Městský Stadion Přerov (Přerov)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Viktorie Přerov54%
×Draw21%
HFK Olomouc25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktorie Přerov
2.14
HFK Olomouc
1.39

Viktorie Přerov creates 54% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 66 away

creates per match

Viktorie Přerov
1.83
HFK Olomouc
1.21

allows per match

Viktorie Přerov
1.56
HFK Olomouc
2.45

finishing

Viktorie Přerov+0.00on par
HFK Olomouc+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktorie Přerov ↓

HFK Olomouc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Viktorie Přerov or draw
75%
Viktorie Přerov or HFK Olomouc
79%
Draw or HFK Olomouc
46%

Winning margin

Viktorie Přerov wins by 2+
33%
HFK Olomouc wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Viktorie Přerov 1+ goals
88%
Viktorie Přerov 2+ goals
63%
Viktorie Přerov 3+ goals
36%
HFK Olomouc 1+ goals
75%
HFK Olomouc 2+ goals
40%
HFK Olomouc 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Viktorie Přerov (draw refunded)
69%
HFK Olomouc (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktorie Přerov at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.56 · 52 matches

HFK Olomouc away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.45 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktorie Přerov attack 1.83 + HFK Olomouc defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.14

HFK Olomouc attack 1.21 + Viktorie Přerov defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Viktorie Přerov scores more
54%
level
21%
HFK Olomouc scores more
25%

Viktorie Přerov at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Viktorie Přerov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Viktorie Přerov host HFK Olomouc

April 19, 2020: Viktorie Přerov take on HFK Olomouc in 4. liga - Divizie E. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Viktorie Přerov host HFK Olomouc at Městský Stadion Přerov (Přerov).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.