Viktoria Žižkov 0–2 Vysočina Jihlava

Viktoria Žižkov

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Vysočina Jihlava

11/5/2023

FNL · Round 15eFotbal aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Viktoria Žižkov45%

×Draw25%

Vysočina Jihlava30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Viktoria ŽižkovExpected goals in this matchVysočina Jihlava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.27

Viktoria Žižkov

1.60

Vysočina Jihlava

1.27

Viktoria Žižkov creates 26% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 103 away

1.53

creates per match

1.16

1.39

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Viktoria Žižkov

1.53

Vysočina Jihlava

1.16

allows per match

Viktoria Žižkov

1.39

Vysočina Jihlava

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viktoria Žižkov+0.00on par

Vysočina Jihlava+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Žižkov ↓

Vysočina Jihlava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Viktoria Žižkov or draw

70%

Viktoria Žižkov or Vysočina Jihlava

75%

Draw or Vysočina Jihlava

55%

Winning margin

Viktoria Žižkov wins by 2+

23%

Vysočina Jihlava wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Viktoria Žižkov 1+ goals

80%

Viktoria Žižkov 2+ goals

47%

Viktoria Žižkov 3+ goals

22%

Vysočina Jihlava 1+ goals

72%

Vysočina Jihlava 2+ goals

36%

Vysočina Jihlava 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Žižkov (draw refunded)

60%

Vysočina Jihlava (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Žižkov at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.39 · 88 matches

Vysočina Jihlava away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.68 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Žižkov attack 1.53 + Vysočina Jihlava defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.60

Vysočina Jihlava attack 1.16 + Viktoria Žižkov defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Viktoria Žižkov scores more

45%

level

25%

Vysočina Jihlava scores more

30%

Viktoria Žižkov at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Viktoria Žižkov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff