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Viktoria Plzeň U19 vs Jindřichův Hradec — 1. Liga U19 2020

Viktoria Plzeň U19
Viktoria Plzeň U19
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
5/28/20221. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 27Stadion Touškov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Viktoria Plzeň U1942%
×Draw22%
Jindřichův Hradec36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Plzeň U19
1.84
Jindřichův Hradec
1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 79 home / 64 away

creates per match

Viktoria Plzeň U19
2.25
Jindřichův Hradec
2.13

allows per match

Viktoria Plzeň U19
1.29
Jindřichův Hradec
1.44

finishing

Viktoria Plzeň U19+0.00on par
Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Plzeň U19 ↓

Jindřichův Hradec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Viktoria Plzeň U19 or draw
64%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 or Jindřichův Hradec
78%
Draw or Jindřichův Hradec
58%

Winning margin

Viktoria Plzeň U19 wins by 2+
22%
Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Viktoria Plzeň U19 1+ goals
84%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 2+ goals
55%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 3+ goals
28%
Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
82%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
51%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Plzeň U19 (draw refunded)
53%
Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Plzeň U19 at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.29 · 79 matches

Jindřichův Hradec away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.44 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Plzeň U19 attack 2.25 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.84

Jindřichův Hradec attack 2.13 + Viktoria Plzeň U19 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Viktoria Plzeň U19 scores more
42%
level
22%
Jindřichův Hradec scores more
36%

Viktoria Plzeň U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Viktoria Plzeň U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga U19: Viktoria Plzeň U19 1–2 Jindřichův Hradec

Jindřichův Hradec beat Viktoria Plzeň U19 2-1 in 1. Liga U19 on May 28, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Touškov in Město Touškov.