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Viktoria Plzeň U19 vs Dukla Praha U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Viktoria Plzeň U19
Viktoria Plzeň U19
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Dukla Praha U19
Dukla Praha U19
11/4/20231. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 14Luční UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Viktoria Plzeň U1949%
×Draw22%
Dukla Praha U1929%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Plzeň U19
1.95
Dukla Praha U19
1.46

Viktoria Plzeň U19 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 60 away

creates per match

Viktoria Plzeň U19
2.25
Dukla Praha U19
1.62

allows per match

Viktoria Plzeň U19
1.29
Dukla Praha U19
1.65

finishing

Viktoria Plzeň U19+0.00on par
Dukla Praha U19+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Plzeň U19 ↓

Dukla Praha U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Viktoria Plzeň U19 or draw
71%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 or Dukla Praha U19
78%
Draw or Dukla Praha U19
51%

Winning margin

Viktoria Plzeň U19 wins by 2+
28%
Dukla Praha U19 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Viktoria Plzeň U19 1+ goals
86%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 2+ goals
58%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 3+ goals
31%
Dukla Praha U19 1+ goals
77%
Dukla Praha U19 2+ goals
43%
Dukla Praha U19 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Plzeň U19 (draw refunded)
63%
Dukla Praha U19 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Plzeň U19 at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.29 · 79 matches

Dukla Praha U19 away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.65 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Plzeň U19 attack 2.25 + Dukla Praha U19 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.95

Dukla Praha U19 attack 1.62 + Viktoria Plzeň U19 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Viktoria Plzeň U19 scores more
49%
level
22%
Dukla Praha U19 scores more
29%

Viktoria Plzeň U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Viktoria Plzeň U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viktoria Plzeň U19 vs Dukla Praha U19

Dukla Praha U19 beat Viktoria Plzeň U19 2-0 in 1. Liga U19 on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Luční UMT in Plzeň.