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Viktoria Otrokovice vs Vrchovina — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Viktoria Otrokovice
Viktoria Otrokovice
FT
4 – 1
Vrchovina
Vrchovina
9/26/20203. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 8Stadion FC Viktoria Otrokovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Viktoria Otrokovice45%
×Draw23%
Vrchovina31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Otrokovice
1.75
Vrchovina
1.42

Viktoria Otrokovice creates 23% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 65 away

creates per match

Viktoria Otrokovice
1.62
Vrchovina
1.06

allows per match

Viktoria Otrokovice
1.77
Vrchovina
1.88

finishing

Viktoria Otrokovice+0.00on par
Vrchovina+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Otrokovice ↓

Vrchovina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Viktoria Otrokovice or draw
69%
Viktoria Otrokovice or Vrchovina
77%
Draw or Vrchovina
55%

Winning margin

Viktoria Otrokovice wins by 2+
24%
Vrchovina wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Viktoria Otrokovice 1+ goals
83%
Viktoria Otrokovice 2+ goals
52%
Viktoria Otrokovice 3+ goals
25%
Vrchovina 1+ goals
76%
Vrchovina 2+ goals
41%
Vrchovina 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Otrokovice (draw refunded)
59%
Vrchovina (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Otrokovice at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.77 · 66 matches

Vrchovina away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.88 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Otrokovice attack 1.62 + Vrchovina defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.75

Vrchovina attack 1.06 + Viktoria Otrokovice defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Viktoria Otrokovice scores more
45%
level
23%
Vrchovina scores more
31%

Viktoria Otrokovice at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Viktoria Otrokovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viktoria Otrokovice vs Vrchovina

Viktoria Otrokovice beat Vrchovina 4-1 in 3. liga - MSFL on September 26, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion FC Viktoria Otrokovice in Otrokovice.