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Viktoria Otrokovice vs Uničov — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Viktoria Otrokovice
Viktoria Otrokovice
CANC
14:00
Uničov
Uničov
5/12/20213. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 20Stadion FC Viktoria Otrokovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Viktoria Otrokovice35%
×Draw23%
Uničov42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Otrokovice
1.56
Uničov
1.71

Uničov creates 10% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 80 away

creates per match

Viktoria Otrokovice
1.62
Uničov
1.66

allows per match

Viktoria Otrokovice
1.77
Uničov
1.51

finishing

Viktoria Otrokovice+0.00on par
Uničov+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Otrokovice ↓

Uničov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Viktoria Otrokovice or draw
58%
Viktoria Otrokovice or Uničov
77%
Draw or Uničov
65%

Winning margin

Viktoria Otrokovice wins by 2+
17%
Uničov wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Viktoria Otrokovice 1+ goals
79%
Viktoria Otrokovice 2+ goals
46%
Viktoria Otrokovice 3+ goals
21%
Uničov 1+ goals
82%
Uničov 2+ goals
51%
Uničov 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Otrokovice (draw refunded)
46%
Uničov (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Otrokovice at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.77 · 66 matches

Uničov away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.51 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Otrokovice attack 1.62 + Uničov defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.56

Uničov attack 1.66 + Viktoria Otrokovice defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Viktoria Otrokovice scores more
35%
level
23%
Uničov scores more
42%

Uničov at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Uničov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Viktoria Otrokovice face Uničov (3. liga - MSFL)

3. liga - MSFL returns with Viktoria Otrokovice hosting Uničov. Match starts May 12, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Viktoria Otrokovice host Uničov at Stadion FC Viktoria Otrokovice.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.