Vikingur Reykjavik vs Keflavik

Vikingur Reykjavik

Preview

19:15

Keflavik

7/26/2026

Úrvalsdeild · Round 16

Big match

67%

Vikingur Reykjavik

model favours

67%18%16%

Vikingur Reykjavik have won 4 of the last 5 meetings

brightest fact of this match

2–1

likely score

70%

over 2.5 goals

62%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Vikingur Reykjavik67%

×Draw18%

Keflavik16%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vikingur ReykjavikExpected goals in this matchKeflavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

1.13

Vikingur Reykjavik

2.50

Keflavik

1.13

Vikingur Reykjavik creates 121% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 16 away

3.13

creates per match

1.25

1.00

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Vikingur Reykjavik

3.13

Keflavik

1.25

allows per match

Vikingur Reykjavik

1.00

Keflavik

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vikingur Reykjavik+0.00on par

Keflavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vikingur Reykjavik ↓

Keflavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Vikingur Reykjavik or draw

84%

Vikingur Reykjavik or Keflavik

82%

Draw or Keflavik

33%

Winning margin

Vikingur Reykjavik wins by 2+

45%

Keflavik wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Vikingur Reykjavik 1+ goals

92%

Vikingur Reykjavik 2+ goals

71%

Vikingur Reykjavik 3+ goals

45%

Keflavik 1+ goals

68%

Keflavik 2+ goals

31%

Keflavik 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Vikingur Reykjavik (draw refunded)

81%

Keflavik (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vikingur Reykjavik at home — creates 3.13, concedes 1.00 · 24 matches

Keflavik away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vikingur Reykjavik attack 3.13 + Keflavik defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.50

Keflavik attack 1.25 + Vikingur Reykjavik defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Vikingur Reykjavik scores more

67%

level

18%

Keflavik scores more

16%

Vikingur Reykjavik at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Vikingur Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

67% of Vikingur Reykjavik’s matches go over 2.5 goals
41% of Vikingur Reykjavik’s goals come after the 75th minute
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
Their last 5 meetings averaged 4.6 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Reykjavik

DWWLW

Keflavik

LDWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff