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Vikingur Gota vs HB Torshavn — Løgmanssteypid 2019

Vikingur Gota
Vikingur Gota
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
HB Torshavn
HB Torshavnadvanced
8/23/2024LøgmanssteypidLøgmanssteypid · Semi-finalsSarpugerði

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Vikingur Gota46%
×Draw22%
HB Torshavn32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vikingur Gota
1.96
HB Torshavn
1.60

Vikingur Gota creates 22% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 12 away

creates per match

Vikingur Gota
2.76
HB Torshavn
2.33

allows per match

Vikingur Gota
0.88
HB Torshavn
1.17

finishing

Vikingur Gota+0.00on par
HB Torshavn+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vikingur Gota ↓

HB Torshavn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Vikingur Gota or draw
68%
Vikingur Gota or HB Torshavn
78%
Draw or HB Torshavn
54%

Winning margin

Vikingur Gota wins by 2+
26%
HB Torshavn wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Vikingur Gota 1+ goals
86%
Vikingur Gota 2+ goals
58%
Vikingur Gota 3+ goals
31%
HB Torshavn 1+ goals
80%
HB Torshavn 2+ goals
47%
HB Torshavn 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Vikingur Gota (draw refunded)
59%
HB Torshavn (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vikingur Gota at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

HB Torshavn away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vikingur Gota attack 2.76 + HB Torshavn defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.96

HB Torshavn attack 2.33 + Vikingur Gota defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vikingur Gota scores more
46%
level
22%
HB Torshavn scores more
32%

Vikingur Gota at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Vikingur Gota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Løgmanssteypid: Vikingur Gota 3–4 HB Torshavn

HB Torshavn beat Vikingur Gota 4-3 in Løgmanssteypid on August 23, 2024.

The match was played at Sarpugerði in Norðragøta, Eysturoy.