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Viking II vs Sandnes Ulf II — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Viking II
Viking II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Sandnes Ulf II
Sandnes Ulf II
5/14/20223. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Girone 3 - 6SR-Bank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Viking II62%
×Draw18%
Sandnes Ulf II20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viking II
2.75
Sandnes Ulf II
1.54

Viking II creates 79% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 26 away

creates per match

Viking II
3.00
Sandnes Ulf II
1.81

allows per match

Viking II
1.28
Sandnes Ulf II
2.50

finishing

Viking II+0.00on par
Sandnes Ulf II+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viking II ↓

Sandnes Ulf II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Viking II or draw
80%
Viking II or Sandnes Ulf II
82%
Draw or Sandnes Ulf II
38%

Winning margin

Viking II wins by 2+
42%
Sandnes Ulf II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Viking II 1+ goals
93%
Viking II 2+ goals
75%
Viking II 3+ goals
51%
Sandnes Ulf II 1+ goals
79%
Sandnes Ulf II 2+ goals
45%
Sandnes Ulf II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Viking II (draw refunded)
76%
Sandnes Ulf II (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viking II at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

Sandnes Ulf II away — creates 1.81, concedes 2.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viking II attack 3.00 + Sandnes Ulf II defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.75

Sandnes Ulf II attack 1.81 + Viking II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Viking II scores more
62%
level
18%
Sandnes Ulf II scores more
20%

Viking II at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Viking II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 3: Viking II 2–2 Sandnes Ulf II

Viking II and Sandnes Ulf II drew 2-2 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on May 14, 2022.

The match was played at SR-Bank Arena in Stavanger.