Viking II vs Mandalskameratene

Viking II

Preview

12:00

Mandalskameratene

8/2/2026

3. Division - Girone 4 · Round 14Lyse Arena

69%

Viking II

model favours

69%15%15%

Mandalskameratene win just 26% against the top half (vs 52% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

3–1

likely score

83%

over 2.5 goals

73%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Viking II69%

×Draw15%

Mandalskameratene15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Viking IIExpected goals in this matchMandalskameratene

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.13

1.46

Viking II

3.13

Mandalskameratene

1.46

Viking II creates 114% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 32 away

4.17

creates per match

2.09

0.83

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Viking II

4.17

Mandalskameratene

2.09

allows per match

Viking II

0.83

Mandalskameratene

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viking II+0.00on par

Mandalskameratene+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viking II ↓

Mandalskameratene →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Viking II or draw

85%

Viking II or Mandalskameratene

85%

Draw or Mandalskameratene

31%

Winning margin

Viking II wins by 2+

50%

Mandalskameratene wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Viking II 1+ goals

95%

Viking II 2+ goals

81%

Viking II 3+ goals

59%

Mandalskameratene 1+ goals

77%

Mandalskameratene 2+ goals

43%

Mandalskameratene 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Viking II (draw refunded)

82%

Mandalskameratene (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viking II at home — creates 4.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Mandalskameratene away — creates 2.09, concedes 2.09 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viking II attack 4.17 + Mandalskameratene defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 3.13

Mandalskameratene attack 2.09 + Viking II defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Viking II scores more

69%

level

15%

Mandalskameratene scores more

15%

Viking II at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Viking II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

II

DLWWW

Mandalskameratene

WDWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff