Viking FK W vs Fyllingsdalen W

Viking FK W

Preview

11:00

Fyllingsdalen W

9/19/2026

1. Division Women · Round 18

Big match

42%

Viking FK W

model favours

42%23%35%

Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

66%

over 2.5 goals

66%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Viking FK W42%

×Draw23%

Fyllingsdalen W35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Viking FK WExpected goals in this matchFyllingsdalen W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.61

Viking FK W

1.78

Fyllingsdalen W

1.61

Viking FK W creates 11% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 41 away

1.46

creates per match

1.27

1.96

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Viking FK W

1.46

Fyllingsdalen W

1.27

allows per match

Viking FK W

1.96

Fyllingsdalen W

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viking FK W+0.00on par

Fyllingsdalen W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viking FK W ↓

Fyllingsdalen W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Viking FK W or draw

65%

Viking FK W or Fyllingsdalen W

77%

Draw or Fyllingsdalen W

58%

Winning margin

Viking FK W wins by 2+

22%

Fyllingsdalen W wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Viking FK W 1+ goals

83%

Viking FK W 2+ goals

53%

Viking FK W 3+ goals

26%

Fyllingsdalen W 1+ goals

80%

Fyllingsdalen W 2+ goals

48%

Fyllingsdalen W 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Viking FK W (draw refunded)

55%

Fyllingsdalen W (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viking FK W at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.96 · 28 matches

Fyllingsdalen W away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.10 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viking FK W attack 1.46 + Fyllingsdalen W defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.78

Fyllingsdalen W attack 1.27 + Viking FK W defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Viking FK W scores more

42%

level

23%

Fyllingsdalen W scores more

35%

Viking FK W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Viking FK W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Viking FK W sit 2, Fyllingsdalen W 12 in the table
Their last 5 meetings averaged 3.8 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

W

WDWWL

W

WWLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff