Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Viking FK W vs Fortuna Ålesund W — 1. Division Women 2022

Viking FK W
Viking FK W
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Fortuna Ålesund W
Fortuna Ålesund W
3/23/20241. Division Women1. Division Women · Round 2SR-Bank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Viking FK W29%
×Draw23%
Fortuna Ålesund W48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viking FK W
1.35
Fortuna Ålesund W
1.81

Fortuna Ålesund W creates 34% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 48 away

creates per match

Viking FK W
1.46
Fortuna Ålesund W
1.67

allows per match

Viking FK W
1.96
Fortuna Ålesund W
1.25

finishing

Viking FK W+0.00on par
Fortuna Ålesund W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viking FK W ↓

Fortuna Ålesund W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Viking FK W or draw
52%
Viking FK W or Fortuna Ålesund W
77%
Draw or Fortuna Ålesund W
71%

Winning margin

Viking FK W wins by 2+
12%
Fortuna Ålesund W wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Viking FK W 1+ goals
74%
Viking FK W 2+ goals
39%
Viking FK W 3+ goals
15%
Fortuna Ålesund W 1+ goals
84%
Fortuna Ålesund W 2+ goals
54%
Fortuna Ålesund W 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Viking FK W (draw refunded)
37%
Fortuna Ålesund W (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viking FK W at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.96 · 28 matches

Fortuna Ålesund W away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.25 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viking FK W attack 1.46 + Fortuna Ålesund W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.35

Fortuna Ålesund W attack 1.67 + Viking FK W defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Viking FK W scores more
29%
level
23%
Fortuna Ålesund W scores more
48%

Fortuna Ålesund W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Fortuna Ålesund W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viking FK W vs Fortuna Ålesund W

Fortuna Ålesund W beat Viking FK W 4-0 in 1. Division Women on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at SR-Bank Arena in Stavanger.