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Viitorul Constanta vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe — Liga I 2018

Viitorul Constanta
Viitorul Constanta
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
10/20/2018Liga ILiga I · Round 12Stadionul Central Academia Hagi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Viitorul Constanta46%
×Draw26%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viitorul Constanta
1.48
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.10

Viitorul Constanta creates 35% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 135 away

creates per match

Viitorul Constanta
1.70
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.18

allows per match

Viitorul Constanta
1.02
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.25

finishing

Viitorul Constanta+0.00on par
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viitorul Constanta ↓

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Viitorul Constanta or draw
72%
Viitorul Constanta or Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
74%
Draw or Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
54%

Winning margin

Viitorul Constanta wins by 2+
23%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Viitorul Constanta 1+ goals
77%
Viitorul Constanta 2+ goals
43%
Viitorul Constanta 3+ goals
19%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1+ goals
67%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 2+ goals
30%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Viitorul Constanta (draw refunded)
62%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viitorul Constanta at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.02 · 56 matches

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.25 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viitorul Constanta attack 1.70 + Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.48

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe attack 1.18 + Viitorul Constanta defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Viitorul Constanta scores more
46%
level
26%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe scores more
28%

Viitorul Constanta at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Viitorul Constanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: Viitorul Constanta 2–3 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe beat Viitorul Constanta 3-2 in Liga I on October 20, 2018.

The match was played at Stadionul Central Academia Hagi in Ovidiu.