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Viimsi vs Elva — Esiliiga A 2026

Esiliiga AEsiliiga A·2026📍Viimsi Staadion
Viimsi
Viimsi
Preview
16:00
Elva
Elva
Date
Jul 16, 2026, 4:00 PM
Tournament
Esiliiga A · Regular Season - 20
Venue
Viimsi Staadion, Viimsi
Big match
51%
Viimsi
model favours
51%23%26%

Viimsi score first in only 10% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Viimsi51%
×Draw23%
Elva26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viimsi
1.84
Elva
1.27

Viimsi creates 45% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

creates per match

Viimsi
2.29
Elva
1.40

allows per match

Viimsi
1.14
Elva
1.40

finishing

Viimsi+0.00on par
Elva+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viimsi ↓

Elva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Viimsi or draw
74%
Viimsi or Elva
77%
Draw or Elva
49%

Winning margin

Viimsi wins by 2+
28%
Elva wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Viimsi 1+ goals
84%
Viimsi 2+ goals
55%
Viimsi 3+ goals
28%
Elva 1+ goals
72%
Elva 2+ goals
36%
Elva 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Viimsi (draw refunded)
66%
Elva (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viimsi at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Elva away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viimsi attack 2.29 + Elva defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.84

Elva attack 1.40 + Viimsi defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Viimsi scores more
51%
level
23%
Elva scores more
26%

Viimsi at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Viimsi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Viimsi
DDLWL
Elva
WDWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Viimsi host Elva

July 16, 2026: Viimsi take on Elva in Esiliiga A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Viimsi host Elva at Viimsi Staadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.