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Vihren vs Dobrudzha — Second League 2018

Vihren
Vihren
Preview
15:00
Dobrudzha
Dobrudzha
9/12/2026Second LeagueSecond League · Round 9Spartak Stadium
61%
Vihren
model favours
61%23%16%

Vihren and Dobrudzha have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Vihren61%
×Draw23%
Dobrudzha16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vihren
1.82
Dobrudzha
0.82

Vihren creates 122% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 101 away

creates per match

Vihren
2.25
Dobrudzha
0.89

allows per match

Vihren
0.75
Dobrudzha
1.40

finishing

Vihren+0.00on par
Dobrudzha+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihren ↓

Dobrudzha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Vihren or draw
84%
Vihren or Dobrudzha
77%
Draw or Dobrudzha
39%

Winning margin

Vihren wins by 2+
35%
Dobrudzha wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Vihren 1+ goals
84%
Vihren 2+ goals
54%
Vihren 3+ goals
27%
Dobrudzha 1+ goals
56%
Dobrudzha 2+ goals
20%
Dobrudzha 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Vihren (draw refunded)
79%
Dobrudzha (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihren at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.75 · 16 matches

Dobrudzha away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.40 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihren attack 2.25 + Dobrudzha defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.82

Dobrudzha attack 0.89 + Vihren defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Vihren scores more
61%
level
23%
Dobrudzha scores more
16%

Vihren at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Vihren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Vihren
WLLWD
Dobrudzha
LDDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vihren face Dobrudzha (Second League)

Second League returns with Vihren hosting Dobrudzha. Match starts September 12, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Vihren host Dobrudzha at Spartak Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.