Vihar Slavyanovo 3–1 Lokomotiv Dryanovo

Vihar Slavyanovo

FT

3 – 1

Lokomotiv Dryanovo

10/30/2021

Third League - Northwest · North-West - 13Stadion Slavyanovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Vihar Slavyanovo70%

×Draw18%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vihar SlavyanovoExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv Dryanovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

0.82

Vihar Slavyanovo

2.25

Lokomotiv Dryanovo

0.82

Vihar Slavyanovo creates 174% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 81 away

2.08

creates per match

0.88

0.77

allows per match

2.42

creates per match

Vihar Slavyanovo

2.08

Lokomotiv Dryanovo

0.88

allows per match

Vihar Slavyanovo

0.77

Lokomotiv Dryanovo

2.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vihar Slavyanovo+0.00on par

Lokomotiv Dryanovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihar Slavyanovo ↓

Lokomotiv Dryanovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Vihar Slavyanovo or draw

88%

Vihar Slavyanovo or Lokomotiv Dryanovo

82%

Draw or Lokomotiv Dryanovo

30%

Winning margin

Vihar Slavyanovo wins by 2+

46%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Vihar Slavyanovo 1+ goals

89%

Vihar Slavyanovo 2+ goals

65%

Vihar Slavyanovo 3+ goals

39%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo 1+ goals

56%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo 2+ goals

20%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Vihar Slavyanovo (draw refunded)

85%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihar Slavyanovo at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.77 · 95 matches

Lokomotiv Dryanovo away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.42 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihar Slavyanovo attack 2.08 + Lokomotiv Dryanovo defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.25

Lokomotiv Dryanovo attack 0.88 + Vihar Slavyanovo defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Vihar Slavyanovo scores more

70%

level

18%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo scores more

12%

Vihar Slavyanovo at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Vihar Slavyanovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff