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Vigasio vs Cartigliano — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Vigasio
Vigasio
PST
13:00
Cartigliano
Cartigliano
4/5/2020Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 34Stadio Comunale Umberto Capone (Vigasio)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Vigasio36%
×Draw25%
Cartigliano39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vigasio
1.37
Cartigliano
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 49 away

creates per match

Vigasio
1.37
Cartigliano
1.43

allows per match

Vigasio
1.43
Cartigliano
1.37

finishing

Vigasio+0.00on par
Cartigliano+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vigasio ↓

Cartigliano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Vigasio or draw
61%
Vigasio or Cartigliano
75%
Draw or Cartigliano
64%

Winning margin

Vigasio wins by 2+
16%
Cartigliano wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Vigasio 1+ goals
75%
Vigasio 2+ goals
40%
Vigasio 3+ goals
16%
Cartigliano 1+ goals
76%
Cartigliano 2+ goals
42%
Cartigliano 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Vigasio (draw refunded)
48%
Cartigliano (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vigasio at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

Cartigliano away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.37 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vigasio attack 1.37 + Cartigliano defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.37

Cartigliano attack 1.43 + Vigasio defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Vigasio scores more
36%
level
25%
Cartigliano scores more
39%

Cartigliano at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cartigliano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vigasio vs Cartigliano — Match Preview

Vigasio face Cartigliano on April 5, 2020 in this Serie D - Girone C fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Vigasio host Cartigliano at Stadio Comunale Umberto Capone (Vigasio).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.