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VIFK vs JS Hercules — Suomen Cup 2018

VIFK
VIFK
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
JS Hercules
JS Hercules
4/10/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundElisa Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

VIFK34%
×Draw20%
JS Hercules46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VIFK
2.08
JS Hercules
2.42

JS Hercules creates 16% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

VIFK
1.67
JS Hercules
3.00

allows per match

VIFK
1.83
JS Hercules
2.50

finishing

VIFK+0.00on par
JS Hercules+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VIFK ↓

JS Hercules →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–27%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

VIFK or draw
54%
VIFK or JS Hercules
80%
Draw or JS Hercules
66%

Winning margin

VIFK wins by 2+
18%
JS Hercules wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

VIFK 1+ goals
87%
VIFK 2+ goals
61%
VIFK 3+ goals
34%
JS Hercules 1+ goals
91%
JS Hercules 2+ goals
69%
JS Hercules 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

VIFK (draw refunded)
43%
JS Hercules (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VIFK at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

JS Hercules away — creates 3.00, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VIFK attack 1.67 + JS Hercules defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.08

JS Hercules attack 3.00 + VIFK defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

VIFK scores more
34%
level
20%
JS Hercules scores more
46%

JS Hercules at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "JS Hercules will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: VIFK 2–0 JS Hercules

VIFK beat JS Hercules 2-0 in Suomen Cup on April 10, 2022.

The match was played at Elisa Stadion in Vaasa.