Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Viettel vs Công An Nhân Dân — Cup 2019

Viettel
Vietteladvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Công An Nhân Dân
Công An Nhân Dân
3/13/2024CupCup · Round of 16Sân vận động Hàng Đẫy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Viettel53%
×Draw22%
Công An Nhân Dân26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viettel
2.04
Công An Nhân Dân
1.38

Viettel creates 48% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

creates per match

Viettel
2.25
Công An Nhân Dân
2.17

allows per match

Viettel
0.58
Công An Nhân Dân
1.83

finishing

Viettel+0.00on par
Công An Nhân Dân+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viettel ↓

Công An Nhân Dân →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Viettel or draw
74%
Viettel or Công An Nhân Dân
78%
Draw or Công An Nhân Dân
47%

Winning margin

Viettel wins by 2+
31%
Công An Nhân Dân wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Viettel 1+ goals
87%
Viettel 2+ goals
60%
Viettel 3+ goals
33%
Công An Nhân Dân 1+ goals
75%
Công An Nhân Dân 2+ goals
40%
Công An Nhân Dân 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Viettel (draw refunded)
67%
Công An Nhân Dân (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viettel at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.58 · 12 matches

Công An Nhân Dân away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viettel attack 2.25 + Công An Nhân Dân defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.04

Công An Nhân Dân attack 2.17 + Viettel defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Viettel scores more
53%
level
22%
Công An Nhân Dân scores more
26%

Viettel at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Viettel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viettel vs Công An Nhân Dân

Viettel beat Công An Nhân Dân 1-0 in Cup on March 13, 2024.

The match was played at Sân vận động Hàng Đẫy in Hanoi.