Viettel 3–0 Công An Nhân Dân: Result & Stats

Viettel

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Công An Nhân Dân

3/9/2024

V.League 1 · Round 13Sân vận động Hàng Đẫy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Viettel38%

×Draw27%

Công An Nhân Dân36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ViettelExpected goals in this matchCông An Nhân Dân

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.26

Viettel

1.31

Công An Nhân Dân

1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 48 away

1.46

creates per match

1.67

0.86

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Viettel

1.46

Công An Nhân Dân

1.67

allows per match

Viettel

0.86

Công An Nhân Dân

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viettel+0.00on par

Công An Nhân Dân+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viettel ↓

Công An Nhân Dân →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Viettel or draw

64%

Viettel or Công An Nhân Dân

73%

Draw or Công An Nhân Dân

62%

Winning margin

Viettel wins by 2+

17%

Công An Nhân Dân wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Viettel 1+ goals

73%

Viettel 2+ goals

38%

Viettel 3+ goals

14%

Công An Nhân Dân 1+ goals

72%

Công An Nhân Dân 2+ goals

36%

Công An Nhân Dân 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Viettel (draw refunded)

52%

Công An Nhân Dân (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viettel at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.86 · 90 matches

Công An Nhân Dân away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viettel attack 1.46 + Công An Nhân Dân defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.31

Công An Nhân Dân attack 1.67 + Viettel defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Viettel scores more

38%

level

27%

Công An Nhân Dân scores more

36%

Viettel at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Viettel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff