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Vietnam vs Cambodia — ASEAN Championship 2025

Vietnam
Vietnam
Preview
12:00
Cambodia
Cambodia
8/7/2026ASEAN ChampionshipASEAN Championship · Group Stage - 5
76%
Vietnam
model favours
76%15%9%
2–0
likely score
68%
over 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Vietnam76%
×Draw15%
Cambodia9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vietnam
2.70
Cambodia
0.84

Vietnam creates 221% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 9 away

creates per match

Vietnam
2.40
Cambodia
1.22

allows per match

Vietnam
0.47
Cambodia
3.00

finishing

Vietnam+0.00on par
Cambodia+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vietnam ↓

Cambodia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Vietnam or draw
91%
Vietnam or Cambodia
85%
Draw or Cambodia
24%

Winning margin

Vietnam wins by 2+
55%
Cambodia wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Vietnam 1+ goals
93%
Vietnam 2+ goals
75%
Vietnam 3+ goals
50%
Cambodia 1+ goals
57%
Cambodia 2+ goals
21%
Cambodia 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Vietnam (draw refunded)
89%
Cambodia (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vietnam at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.47 · 15 matches

Cambodia away — creates 1.22, concedes 3.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vietnam attack 2.40 + Cambodia defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.70

Cambodia attack 1.22 + Vietnam defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Vietnam scores more
76%
level
15%
Cambodia scores more
9%

Vietnam at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Vietnam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Vietnam
WWWWW
Cambodia
WWDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vietnam face Cambodia (ASEAN Championship)

ASEAN Championship returns with Vietnam hosting Cambodia. Match starts August 7, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.