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Videm vs Šampion Celje — 3. SNL - East 2020

Videm
Videm
Preview
13:30
Šampion Celje
Šampion Celje
10/3/20263. SNL - East3. SNL - East · East - 8
60%
Videm
model favours
60%19%21%
2–1
likely score
71%
over 2.5 goals
67%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Videm60%
×Draw19%
Šampion Celje21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Videm
2.37
Šampion Celje
1.34

Videm creates 77% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 9 away

creates per match

Videm
2.40
Šampion Celje
1.44

allows per match

Videm
1.25
Šampion Celje
2.33

finishing

Videm+0.00on par
Šampion Celje+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Videm ↓

Šampion Celje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Videm or draw
79%
Videm or Šampion Celje
81%
Draw or Šampion Celje
40%

Winning margin

Videm wins by 2+
38%
Šampion Celje wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Videm 1+ goals
91%
Videm 2+ goals
68%
Videm 3+ goals
42%
Šampion Celje 1+ goals
74%
Šampion Celje 2+ goals
39%
Šampion Celje 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Videm (draw refunded)
74%
Šampion Celje (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Videm at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

Šampion Celje away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Videm attack 2.40 + Šampion Celje defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.37

Šampion Celje attack 1.44 + Videm defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Videm scores more
60%
level
19%
Šampion Celje scores more
21%

Videm at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Videm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Videm
LWWWL
Celje
LWLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Videm face Šampion Celje (3. SNL - East)

3. SNL - East returns with Videm hosting Šampion Celje. Match starts October 3, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.