Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Vidar vs Sola — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Vidar
Vidar
FT
3 – 4
Sola
Sola
10/30/20213. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Girone 3 - 13Lassa idrettspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Vidar61%
×Draw19%
Sola20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vidar
2.42
Sola
1.32

Vidar creates 83% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 20 away

creates per match

Vidar
2.55
Sola
1.25

allows per match

Vidar
1.39
Sola
2.30

finishing

Vidar+0.00on par
Sola+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vidar ↓

Sola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Vidar or draw
80%
Vidar or Sola
81%
Draw or Sola
39%

Winning margin

Vidar wins by 2+
40%
Sola wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Vidar 1+ goals
91%
Vidar 2+ goals
69%
Vidar 3+ goals
43%
Sola 1+ goals
73%
Sola 2+ goals
38%
Sola 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Vidar (draw refunded)
76%
Sola (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vidar at home — creates 2.55, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

Sola away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.30 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vidar attack 2.55 + Sola defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.42

Sola attack 1.25 + Vidar defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Vidar scores more
61%
level
19%
Sola scores more
20%

Vidar at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Vidar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vidar 3 – 4 Sola

Sola beat Vidar 4-3 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on October 30, 2021.

The match was played at Lassa idrettspark in Stavanger.