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Vida vs Platense FC — Liga Nacional 2018

Vida
Vida
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Platense FC
Platense FC
11/3/2019Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Apertura - 17Estadio Municipal Ceibeño Nilmo Edwards (La Ceiba)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Vida46%
×Draw25%
Platense FC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vida
1.58
Platense FC
1.21

Vida creates 31% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 91 away

creates per match

Vida
1.38
Platense FC
1.12

allows per match

Vida
1.29
Platense FC
1.79

finishing

Vida+0.00on par
Platense FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vida ↓

Platense FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Vida or draw
71%
Vida or Platense FC
75%
Draw or Platense FC
54%

Winning margin

Vida wins by 2+
23%
Platense FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Vida 1+ goals
79%
Vida 2+ goals
47%
Vida 3+ goals
21%
Platense FC 1+ goals
70%
Platense FC 2+ goals
34%
Platense FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Vida (draw refunded)
61%
Platense FC (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vida at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.29 · 109 matches

Platense FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.79 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vida attack 1.38 + Platense FC defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.58

Platense FC attack 1.12 + Vida defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vida scores more
46%
level
25%
Platense FC scores more
29%

Vida at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Vida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vida vs Platense FC

Platense FC beat Vida 4-3 in Liga Nacional on November 3, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Ceibeño Nilmo Edwards (La Ceiba).