Vida 5–1 Lobos Upnfm: Result & Stats

Vida

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Lobos Upnfm

8/26/2023

Liga Nacional · Apertura - 5Estadio Municipal Ceibeño Nilmo Edwards

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Vida48%

×Draw25%

Lobos Upnfm27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VidaExpected goals in this matchLobos Upnfm

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.14

Vida

1.61

Lobos Upnfm

1.14

Vida creates 41% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 150 away

1.38

creates per match

0.99

1.29

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Vida

1.38

Lobos Upnfm

0.99

allows per match

Vida

1.29

Lobos Upnfm

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vida+0.00on par

Lobos Upnfm+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vida ↓

Lobos Upnfm →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Vida or draw

73%

Vida or Lobos Upnfm

75%

Draw or Lobos Upnfm

52%

Winning margin

Vida wins by 2+

25%

Lobos Upnfm wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Vida 1+ goals

80%

Vida 2+ goals

48%

Vida 3+ goals

22%

Lobos Upnfm 1+ goals

68%

Lobos Upnfm 2+ goals

32%

Lobos Upnfm 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Vida (draw refunded)

64%

Lobos Upnfm (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vida at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.29 · 109 matches

Lobos Upnfm away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.84 · 150 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vida attack 1.38 + Lobos Upnfm defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.61

Lobos Upnfm attack 0.99 + Vida defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Vida scores more

48%

level

25%

Lobos Upnfm scores more

27%

Vida at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Vida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff