Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Victoria vs Real Espana — Liga Nacional 2018

Victoria
Victoria
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Real Espana
Real Espana
11/25/2024Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Apertura - 17Estadio Municipal San Jorge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Victoria37%
×Draw26%
Real Espana37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Victoria
1.29
Real Espana
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 97 home / 161 away

creates per match

Victoria
1.29
Real Espana
1.22

allows per match

Victoria
1.39
Real Espana
1.29

finishing

Victoria+0.00on par
Real Espana+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria ↓

Real Espana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Victoria or draw
63%
Victoria or Real Espana
74%
Draw or Real Espana
63%

Winning margin

Victoria wins by 2+
16%
Real Espana wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Victoria 1+ goals
72%
Victoria 2+ goals
37%
Victoria 3+ goals
14%
Real Espana 1+ goals
73%
Real Espana 2+ goals
37%
Real Espana 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Victoria (draw refunded)
50%
Real Espana (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.39 · 97 matches

Real Espana away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.29 · 161 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria attack 1.29 + Real Espana defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Real Espana attack 1.22 + Victoria defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Victoria scores more
37%
level
26%
Real Espana scores more
37%

Victoria at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Victoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Nacional: Victoria 0–0 Real Espana

Victoria and Real Espana drew 0-0 in Liga Nacional on November 25, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal San Jorge in Olanchito.