Victoria 0–2 CD Olimpia: Result & Stats

Victoria

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

CD Olimpia

5/14/2025

Liga Nacional · Clausura - Semi-finalsEstadio Francisco Morazán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Victoria28%

×Draw26%

CD Olimpia46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VictoriaExpected goals in this matchCD Olimpia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.51

Victoria

1.13

CD Olimpia

1.51

CD Olimpia creates 34% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 175 away

1.29

creates per match

1.64

1.39

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Victoria

1.29

CD Olimpia

1.64

allows per match

Victoria

1.39

CD Olimpia

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Victoria+0.00on par

CD Olimpia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria ↓

CD Olimpia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Victoria or draw

54%

Victoria or CD Olimpia

74%

Draw or CD Olimpia

72%

Winning margin

Victoria wins by 2+

11%

CD Olimpia wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Victoria 1+ goals

68%

Victoria 2+ goals

31%

Victoria 3+ goals

11%

CD Olimpia 1+ goals

78%

CD Olimpia 2+ goals

44%

CD Olimpia 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Victoria (draw refunded)

38%

CD Olimpia (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.39 · 97 matches

CD Olimpia away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.97 · 175 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria attack 1.29 + CD Olimpia defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.13

CD Olimpia attack 1.64 + Victoria defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Victoria scores more

28%

level

26%

CD Olimpia scores more

46%

CD Olimpia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "CD Olimpia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff